3 Things We’re Watching: Week of February 27

Digit gets (another) job, this time in Canada

A humanoid robot named Digit just clocked in at Toyota’s Woodstock, Ontario, plant to work alongside flesh-and-blood assembly-line staff.¹ Created by Oregon-based Agility Robotics, Digit made history in 2024 as the first humanoid robot to hold a commercial job in the U.S.,² and now it has picked up a second gig in Canada. Following a year-long pilot, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada signed on for a full deployment of seven units at its RAV4 facility. Officially, Digit will support manufacturing, supply chain and logistics activities, including repetitive and physically demanding work (like loading and unloading bins of auto parts) that auto plants require to be done without error across long production shifts.³ It’s estimated that one Digit could cost up to US$250,000,⁴ but for now, Toyota is leasing the robotic help through Agility’s Robots-as-a-Service model. Agility’s CEO has said the company is aiming for a price point about the same as paying a worker US$30 per hour for two years.⁵

What we’re watching: Digit is one of fewer than 20,000 humanoid robots deployed worldwide,⁶ which tells you something about how much room there is still to grow. Forecasts indicate the humanoid robot market will reach US$6.5 billion by 2030, with shipments expected to hit 115,000 units in 2027 alone.⁷ For Canadian investors, the names already in the mix make for interesting watching – companies like Toyota, Amazon⁸ and Nvidia.⁹ Closer to home, Magna International has backed Vancouver-based humanoid startup Sanctuary AI.¹⁰ The robots are showing up for work. The question is how many more are right behind them.

Trouble in the Private Credit Sector

Fixed income isn’t just for public market investors. Since 2008, private credit loans between businesses and, usually, non-bank lenders – has boomed, reaching US$3.5 trillion in assets under management globally at the end of 2025.¹¹ Historically, these investments were sold to institutional and high-net-worth investors, who would receive higher yields from them than traditional bonds, but more recently they’ve been packed up in funds that any retail investors can purchase. These funds aren’t as liquid as your average mutual fund, though, and it’s not as easy to price private market securities as it is public ones.

Here’s the problem: lately, many investors, nervous about market volatility, want to withdraw their money, but some firms have halted payouts, in part because the funds’ assets can’t be sold quickly like a frequently traded stock or bond. Most recently, Blue Owl, one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, said that it was stopping redemptions at one of its funds, Blue Owl Capital Corp II.¹² The February 18 announcement raised concerns across the markets about whether the private credit space is another 2008 waiting to happen.

What we’re watching: Stress in the private debt markets doesn’t necessarily mean we’re headed for a Great Recession-style financial sector meltdown. Some expect corporate defaults will ease this year compared to 2025,¹³ but if the economy weakens or market volatility increases, investors may get jittery, and that could put more pressure on credit market funds to meet redemption demand. If more companies pause payouts, that could spook more investors, causing a ripple effect through the financial system. You might have some exposure to this market through a company plan, but it’s less likely you’re holding these assets in a retail fund. Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on how this market moves.

Canada’s market is up amid new tariff talk. What gives?

Canada is in the middle of high-stakes trade negotiations with the United States,¹⁴ but the ground keeps shifting. Earlier this month, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump had overstepped his authority by using emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada and other countries. Trump responded by signing a new 10-per-cent global tariff under a different legal authority, which he has since threatened to raise to 15 per cent. Goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, known as CUSMA, are still exempt, and the new tariff expires after 150 days unless U.S. Congress votes to extend it.¹⁵ Economists estimate that about 89 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. comply with CUSMA,¹⁶ which is why Canadian markets took the news in stride, with the TSX climbing in response.¹⁷ But is the market optimism justified?

What we’re watching: The bigger question looming over all of this is the fate of CUSMA itself. The three countries involved in the deal are expected to officially launch the CUSMA review on July 1, 2026,¹⁸ and the stakes are high. The Bank of Canada has warned that an unfavourable outcome would weaken exports, reduce investment and hiring, and slow economic growth.¹⁹ For investors, the health of the Canadian economy in 2026 is directly related to what happens at that negotiating table. The recent market bump is encouraging. Whether it lasts depends on what happens between now and July.