6 Things To Know About Stock Market Crashes and Downturns

Here we go again. From December 2021 through mid-June, the U.S. equity market was down about 20 per cent in real terms.

This is not the first time I've written about large stock market declines, which has included articles on the coronavirus crash and the history of market crashes, among others.

Lessons Learned From Stock Market Declines

I've seen several themes emerge when it comes to these large stock market declines:

1. From time to time, stock markets go through long and deep periods of decline.
2. After a large decline, it is hard to predict how long it will take for stock markets to recover.
3. Over the very long run, stock markets have been generous to investors who can get through long periods of decline.
4. During times of a rapid and deep decline, investors should avoid panic decisions.
5. The standard bell curve is an inadequate model of stock market returns. A model that can capture the extreme risks of the equity market (its “fat tails") is needed.
6. Sometimes, the market and economy move in opposite directions.

How Frequent Are Stock Market Crashes?

Let's take a closer look at those occasional periods of stock market declines.

Following convention, I use the term bear market to refer to a downturn of 20 per cent or more. The 152-year record of U.S. market returns is littered with bear markets; in each case, the market eventually recovered and went on to new heights.

Indeed, this proved to be the case most recently in 2020. After a decline of 20 per cent (in real terms) from December 2019 to March 2020, the U.S. equity market fully recovered in just four months and was back to its pre-crash level by July, soon pushing higher.

This market recovery is evidence of the second lesson about stock market declines: One can never predict how fast a recovery will be.

New Heights After Market Downturns

An investor who stayed in the market through these extreme downturns has been well-rewarded, so far.

Despite the downturns, some of which were quite long and severe, $1 invested at the end of 1870 grew to $20,514 in real terms at the end of May 2022. This is a real annual rate of return of 6.8 per cent.

Think back to when the market bottomed out in February 2009. From then through May 2022, it was up 424 per cent. Even after the additional drop that took place during the first part of June 2022, and made the current drop an official bear market, the market is up by 409 per cent from February 2009.

Recall when the market had plummeted in January 2020. From then through May 2022, it is up 18 per cent. Even after the additional drop that took place during the first part of June, the market is up by about 14 per cent from January 2020.

Not All Stock Market Declines and Recoveries Are the Same

Of the 22 worst market declines in the nearly 152-year history of the U.S. stock market, the largest occurred with the crash of 1929 when the cumulative value dropped by 79 per cent and took four and a half years to recover. (This recovery was short-lived. It was followed by an almost 50 per cent decline.)

In more recent memory was the second-largest decline of 57.6 per cent, which occurred during the 2000s. That decade started with a crash, followed by a near recovery, but then experienced another crash—the global financial crisis.

To put things in perspective, note that a decline of 18.3 per cent that started with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic took only four months to recover, though the pandemic lasted far longer. This shows how the market can at times be disconnected from the real world, and it's a stark reminder that the stock market is not the economy.

As of May 2022, the current stock market decline stood at 17.5 per cent.

At this point, we don't know how severe this current market decline will be, how long it will last, or how long it will take to recover. But if history is any guide, prudent long-term investors who can withstand the risks of equity investing should not panic.

Lessons Learned From the History of Stock Market Crashes and Downturns

At the time of a market crash or downturn, of course, we couldn't have known that would prove to be the case—which is why some investors panicked and sold off their stock holdings.

It just goes to show the unpredictability of markets. Not all crashes are alike in their severity and duration, and naming the market's peak or bottom is difficult. Therefore, the best bet is to prepare now for the next crash with a well-diversified portfolio that fits one's time horizon and risk tolerance.

What I wrote more than two years ago rings truer than ever: “Market risk is about more than volatility. Market risk also includes the possibility of depressed markets and extreme events. These events can be frightening in the short term, but this analysis shows that for investors who can stay in the market for the long run, equity markets still continue to provide rewards for taking these risks."

Equity Investing Can Be Quite Rewarding, But One Must Understand the Risks

One reason the risks and potential awards of equity investing are often misunderstood is that standard models of equity returns are based on the bell curve.

In a bell-curve model, it is virtually impossible for there to be the sort of extreme returns that are largely responsible for the deep declines and large runups that we see in market history. In other words, bell-curve models lack the fat tails (the extreme returns on the ends of the curve) that we see in historical returns.

Understanding the historical record should help investors get through the current downturn.